It is hard to say what drives market behavior, but as volatility returns there seem to be a few drivers. A record bull run is a big part of this as correction fears loom larger. Announced tariffs and a prospective trade-war may be the most direct influence. Regardless, volatility is back and likely to stay through the balance of the cycle. The real question becomes what do you do about this? Let’s focus on the here and now. Next time we will return to looking at the macro view of optimizing your retirement.
While this is a couple of weeks old now it presents an interesting framework for analysis of market conditions. Not surprisingly valuation appears as a problem. Somewhat surprising is that most other data points are not that bad. Where Do We Go From Here?
The same author provides a useful framework in this older article. If you want to be proactive and apply some hedge to your portfolio, take a look. You likely can update the numbers in the analysis yourself to get a more accurate picture. The concepts hold true, though, when volatility returns, if you are interested. 27 ETFs To Consider For Hedging Your Portfolio Risk
Why worry when the fundamentals look so good? ‘It could be a deep correction.’ – J.P. Morgan co-president warns of a 40% stock pullback
Volatility Returns: Time to Consider Dividend Stocks
A common drumbeat here revolves around the very best dividend stocks as a staple investment. That holds true when volatility returns as well. By maintaining its income producing capability your portfolio can mitigate valuation corrections. It may be worth considering focusing more on income producing and less on market appreciation. 9 Safe Dividend Stocks to Buy for “Timely” Retirement Yield This is dated, I encourage you to update the analysis, but ETFs may be a more efficient way to access dividend stars. These Are The Top Dividend ETFs
Lastly, some travel tips as we approach spring break and, dare I say, summer travel. 10 Travel Safety Tips You Can Learn from the CIA
Seems we have been stuck in something like the Summer Doldrums the past several weeks. Whether that is suboptimal weather, the ongoing mayhem in DC, or the occasional heat wave, I cannot say for certain. Nonetheless, life moves on and so does the need for diligence in your retirement planning regimen. So, we return to the primary topic at hand today with a vengeance: your retirement.
Summer Doldrums: The eye-opener section
Having taken a hiatus of nearly a month, it seems appropriate to start by jerking everyone back to reality. Yes, markets have managed to stay buoyant, but still ….
You should probably consider things that may conspire to trip up your retirement. The first – we’ve called sequence risk here before – is one you must take to heart. 27 Ugly Truths About Retirement
Then there is the matter of the never-ending bull market. Are you still ‘all in?’ Have you taken defensive measures to lock in some of your gains? This lengthy tome may help you put things into perspective. There They Go Again … Again from Howard Marks at Oaktree Capital Management
Summer Doldrums: How about some actionable ideas to consider for your retirement?
We often emphasize risk adjusted total returns when thinking about investing for retirement. That frequently turns into dividend aristocrats as an option. They drive current income and, hopefully, capital appreciation. Combined they are often a winning element of your strategy. Undervalued Aristocrats: Exclusive Dividend Aristocrat Buy and Sell Recommendations From Sure Dividend Ignore the Price, Remember the Dividends: Why Dividends are the Key to Building Wealth
At the same time, it often pays to capitalize on macroeconomic trends. In this case the convergence of a demographic trend and a political reality. A Private Pay Healthcare REIT That Yields 10%
Summer Doldrums: How can you bring about behavioral change?
Since we just missed a month of posting, how do you change behavior? A Stanford University Psychologist’s elegant three-step method for creating new habits
What a week it has been, clearly it is time to focus, focus, focus. Donald Trump won the election by promising a whole lot of things. Not much of this has been done, one might argue none of it. Boy has there been controversy, though. Whether you agree that media reports and hearsay trump first person accounts from General McMaster or not, Congressional Democrats and the media will not let the latest story go. All this smoke seems to mean that any progress you were hoping for on taxes, healthcare, jobs, or any other important area of focus for the government is not likely to happen any time soon. That’s why you and I need to focus, focus, focus on what we can control. Sadly, this seems to be a theme of late because there is a never-ending stream of scandals or wanna be scandals. Don’t fall for it, wait for the process to work. Did you notice the reporting on Seth Rich and Wikileaks? http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/05/16/family-slain-dnc-staffer-seth-rich-blasts-detective-over-report-wikileaks-link.html Here, too, sensitivity to the nature of the underlying evidence produced – in both these cases none – is paramount, and the lack of actual evidence reinforces our topic today: focus, focus, focus.
Focus, Focus, Focus: Have a plan and stick to it.
There are only so many drums we beat here to help you navigate your way to a comfortable retirement. One of those is to have a plan and stick to it. This article reinforces this notion, pointing out that investor behavior is a big driver in returns. Don’t get sidetracked by Washington, please. Up on Trump or in the dumps, don’t invest emotionally
In that vein, here is a nice tutorial on why it is important to have a plan and stick to it. The Most Important Rule in Investing
Another important thing, have the right expectations. With retirement savings so anemic in the US, ever increasing longevity and related healthcare costs … what do you expect? This is somewhat cutesy way of slapping you on the same old retirement notion. A personal finance writer explains what too many people get wrong about retirement
Focus, Focus, Focus: Another dose of dividend investing ideas to keep you thinking.
Yes, dividend stocks and ETFs may not be the sole component of your strategy, but the right ones can provide income and principal protection. Here are some interesting takes on the space right now: Not all Dividend Growth ETFs are Created Equal Great Dividend ETF to Simulate Dividend Yield of 21.5% and Recent Price Declines Make MORL Attractive Dividend Champions Everywhere Patience Leads to Great Dividend Growth
Markets remain a perplexing, challenging read and a dividend defense may not be the worst approach. The first thing you need to do is understand the environment. Whether you are in the accumulation phase or the distribution phase, dividend defense may be a good approach.
Dividend Defense: What are the risks you face today and how can you protect against them?
As you plan your retirement you have to be wary of myriad risks, and reliable dividend stocks can be a good way to insulate your portfolio through the cycles.
Let’s start by assessing the risks that can derail your retirement plan. 7 Dangers that Could Derail Your Retirement (and What to Do About Them) and 5 Silent Killers of a Financial Plan
Then, of course, there’s the truly defensive way of thinking. Seems like we have been waiting forever for the ‘other shoe to drop.’ It really has been a long run up since the debacle that was 2008/2009. Will it go on forever? Unlikely. Retirement Strategy: Do You Have What it Takes for the Next Major Correction? or Positioning a Portfolio Properly for Any Outcome
A quick word of caution: all signs point to passive investing as the way to go. Indeed this week Warren Buffett essentially endorsed the model saying: “ “ Two ways of looking at this, if markets are going to correct, indices go with them and how much of the market rise comes from the move to indexed products? Indexing Investment Strategy Becoming Increasingly More Risky? Not to mention, Monday Morning Memo: Is Capacity a New Restriction for the ETF Industry?
Dividend Defense: Using dividend stars to deliver returns or income and preserve capital
All too often we focus solely on the income aspects of dividend stocks. They are a great way to deliver income and preserve capital in the distribution phase. They are also a decent way to deliver returns and build basis in the accumulation phase. Regardless how you plan to utilize your dividend investments, fundamentally sound selection is the key. 15 Straight Dividend Hikes, Raised Guidance Again, Major Earnings Growth, 12% Upside or 10 Champion Dividend Dogs Said to Gain 7% – 22% by May 2018 or Dividend ETF to Retire On
Dividend Defense: Evolving political landscape aims to make self-determination easier.
No matter your opinion on where markets are heading or dividends as a tool, this is a good idea. TIAA, IRI Back Bill Requiring Retirement Plan Income Projections
We often speak of your distribution phase here as the income phase of your retirement planning. It is the time after the accumulation phase ends … once you retire. When you begin to draw down on your retirement savings your mindset must change and your decision making, too. Everyone … even financial advisors … focus their time, energy and attention on the accumulation phase. That makes sense because it used to be the bigger timeframe (and more lucrative for financial advisors). Now though, with longevity increasing, you may actually be in the distribution phase for a longer time. So, how do you most efficiently draw down your assets to deliver the comfortable, secure retirement you want?
Your Distribution Phase: Changing strategies to create lasting income.
The most important component of your distribution phase strategy is to generate enough income for as long as you need it. Without entering into the longevity risk discussion today we can focus on ways to optimize your retirement savings. This is an outstanding article based upon the Stanford Center on Longevity and Society of Actuaries work on the topic. Here’s an ‘income menu’ that could help retirees make their savings last
In a similar vein, while this seems like a sales pitch I think you can extract some value gratis. It may help you in the accumulation phase to adjust your saving strategy. It may help you in your distribution phase to optimize your withdrawal pattern. One online tool helps you turn many retirement factors into money magic
We speak often of dividend stocks (good ones) as a means of generating income and preserving principal. This article takes a look at the multi-generational potential for a solid dividend investing approach. Never Run Out of Money: The Gift That Keeps on Giving
To be fair we always temper our dividend discussions with the need to remain vigilant. Here the Motley Fool helps illustrate that point. 3 Most Wildly Overvalued Dividend Stocks
Your Distribution Phase: Remain vigilant, understand market conditions, and history.
Clearly there is some luck involved in retirement planning success. Far more is dependent upon hard work, by you or someone helping you. Whether it is the accumulation phase or your distribution phase you need to have a strategy. The 3 Characteristics of a Good Investing Framework
If you believe that a downturn is inevitable and coming soon, then understand what works. Here is an interesting look at Beta vs Volatility over time. Low Volatility and High Beta Stocks Prior to Last Downturn
Finally, in the vein of history as a guide, don’t be fooled by seemingly compelling charts. This author picks apart a classic chart to make you think hard about market timing. The World’s Most Deceptive Chart
Finally, something we can all agree on: retirement insecurity. Perhaps through persistence or saturation or simply self-awareness people are coming around to the unnerving truth. Whether driven by slow starts, low balances, Social Security, longevity risk, medical costs or something else, people are concerned. Democrats and Republicans Alike Worry About Retirement Security
Just in case you think that is all overblown, the Congressional Budget Office just released this study on Social Security. Social Security ‘broke’ by 2029: What’s not in it for you?
Retirement Insecurity: Don’t just sit there, do something about it!
We have talked many times about the QLAC (Qualified Lifetime Annuity Contract) and the potentially vital role it can play. These Government authorized ‘longevity insurance’ annuities provide you income for life within your qualified plans … when plan sponsors provide them. Seems that may be getting some traction now. Employers are trying to solve their workers’ retirement income problem It doesn’t hurt to bring it up with your employer.
We say it here virtually every installment, use all the tax advantaged tools you can when saving for retirement. Just in case you missed that, there’s this. 6 Tax-Efficient Strategies to Keep More of Your Money in Retirement
Retirement Insecurity: Save more while you are working and be smart about it.
I admit I have not heard of this before, but it is very, very interesting. If you are still working it is worth the time. Another way to measure retirement readiness: Your ‘Power Percentage’
Like most people you likely do not know how much you need to retire. There are plenty of guides, most pretty well useless. This may be, too, but it is great food for thought and might just get you motivated. The 25X Rule to Early Retirement
If you happen to subscribe to the Financial Times this might be interesting reading. If not, it says that looking through US regulatory filings shows that the most successful investors have one thing in common. They all disregard macro trends in favor of betting on individual companies and industries. You might say ‘so what’ I’m not going to do that, but wait then there is this article. Here if you are willing to invest the effort you may well join that club by doing some really interesting analytics on individual stocks, ETFs and more. If nothing else do yourself a favor and read the beginning. The Schwab US Equity Dividend ETF vs. the S&P 500 Index: A Comparative Case Study
Retirement Insecurity: Change your mind set in retirement – distribution not accumulation.
In the perfect world, you manage to get appreciation of your assets and income. That’s where dividend stocks can be helpful by throwing off income without liquidating assets. It is a fluid environment, though, and you should stay on top of your choices. Dividend Champions for March 2017
In case you have not yet figured it out, longevity risk is a giant one for your retirement. That means dealing with it explicitly is a priority. In turn that means you may need to think outside the box on how to address this risk. Life Insurance in Retirement: Who Needs It?
With each installment, we try to impart financial wisdom on our readers. It generally comes by way of general rules and valuable pointers. This time we turn the focus to distilled financial wisdom. First from the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett in his annual letter to shareholders. It is a lengthy read, but always worthwhile. You can find that here: Warren Buffett’s letter to Berkshire Hathaway investors explains how to use fear to your benefit. The second piece comes from Jim Gallagher, a personal finance columnist, it is here: 23 years of personal finance wisdom distilled into one final column. Before this one gets too dated I figure why not share Jeff Gundlach’s mid-January opinion piece. Here’s Jeff Gundlach’s full presentation on expensive stocks, the economy under Trump, and the Federal Reserve
Financial Wisdom: Always optimize the incentives Government provides.
I will start by saying Social Security is not given to you by Government, you fund and earn it. Still, there is an art to extracting the most value. This is the surefire way to maximize your Social Security benefits
Another really popular topic here is Health Savings Accounts (HSAs). We will not rest on this one until you fully appreciate the value of these. How Health Savings Accounts Work
Financial Wisdom: You need to be very, very attentive to your longevity risk.
You saw it above in the piece on Social Security and this article, too, deals squarely with longevity risk. Many find fault with annuities as a solution, but the guarantees have value and should not be dismissed. The biggest problem with traditional retirement planning
Financial Wisdom: Invest as wisely as you possibly can.
One thing vital to your planning is to understand that it is never a ‘set it and forget it’ process. This article helps drive that point home. Investor’s Alpha: Proper Asset Allocation
Then again, things are subject to change … what impact will Artificial Intelligence have on individual retirement investing? This article may give you some insight and hope. Artificial Intelligence Hedge Funds Outperforming Humans
Investing wisely also means being aware of your environment. This article, just published this morning, shares a Monte Carlo simulation for market performance in March. As with all prognostications, take it for what it is worth, but it is fascinating. I recommend reading it through. A Monte Carlo Simulation of the S&P 500 for March 2017
We have turned our focus back to your retirement and plenty of disgruntled people out there will be well served by Optimizing Trump. What that means is identifying the potential implications of a Trump presidency for your retirement and addressing them now.
Optimizing Trump: Locking in things as best you can before it gets any crazier.
One of our common themes is income generation in retirement. Whether using tools like longevity annuities or investing in the finest dividend stocks, securing income streams matters.
Plenty of dividend stocks and funds, and plenty of tips on them, too. This one is intriguing, though. One of the Best Dividend Growth Stocks Around Regardless of the State of the Economy
This is way, way in the weeds for most, but it portends something worth understanding. The bottom line is that the Fed bought up lots of stuff in propping up the economy. Now, they are thinking about exiting some, specifically mortgage backed securities. It is good to be aware, at least. Everyone is suddenly worried about this U.S. mortgage-bond whale
Optimizing Trump: Finding weaknesses before they overwhelm.
Safe to say whether you like Trump or not, you probably expect there will be turmoil at some point. Turmoil equals uncertainty, and uncertainty drives volatility. If Trump Flares Up Uncertainty, Profit from These ETFs
Optimizing Trump: always focus on the fundamentals … fees, longevity, etc.
It has been some time since we have harped on the fact that you will live longer and that means you will need more savings. Perhaps the oracle of The USA Today will lend some credence to the argument. How much do you need to fund retirement? More than you think.
Now a somewhat different angle on the same topic…your spouse is likely not the same age. That matters. Retirement Planning? Couples, Mind the Age Gap
It always seems to be the best advice to focus on what you can control; right now that means Refocus on Retirement. As satisfying as a snarky Facebook post or march to Trump Tower may be, it will not improve your life. Getting your retirement strategy straight and working on your retirement account and assets, that will matter. Indeed, with only so many hours in the day, you are far better served by getting your retirement in order. You might find value in spending time with your loved ones after that. To this end, we return to our core value proposition here, delivering insightful reading on retirement topics.
Refocus on Retirement: Navigate a challenging environment
With equity markets on an extended tear, one must wonder when it ends. Market timers never prosper, but vigilance is very much in order.
As ETFs have prospered many have shifted from active strategies to passive. Is that still a good idea? When markets correct what happens to indices? What drove the performance in the first place? What if Everybody Became an Indexer? Financial Advisor Daily Digest US ETF Industry Growth Shows Signs of Maturity
Be prepared for a downturn by repositioning assets as needed. No magic, just an open mind: How to survive a ‘worst-case’
The uncertainty driven by the Trump Administration has generally worked favorably for US markets. Will that continue, or should you seek shelter now? Emerging-Market ETF Strength is More than Meets the Eye
In the same vein, volatility may be a decent play as the Administration finds its footing. Market Volatility Bulletin: VIX Back in Bed?
Refocus on Retirement: As always, find ways to optimize your retirement income
One obvious way to optimize your retirement income is though income generating investments. This REIT Yields 7.4% and Could Return Over 50%
Stay current in your awareness of dividend stocks. Dividend Champions for February 2017
Another great way to improve your retirement is leveraging the tax code. Retirement: Use extra cash to cover retiree health costs
Refocus on Retirement: As promised, your getaway section for this post
A getaway may simply be in your mind. Try these on for size, it won’t take long. 25 Shortest Jokes Ever
Here is a classic case of careful what you wish for … look at the budget numbers! Still, worth a side trip, at least. The world’s first “acoustically perfect” concert hall opens in Germany
Since we advocate saving money and traveling (well). These sites might help. The Checking Accounts That Let You Avoid Foreign ATM Fees The 12 Best Travel Sites and Apps You Need Right Now
Most everyone is taking this week off from work, the perfect chance for a year-end review.
Year-end Review: Tune up your fiscal habits as we enter the New Year.
It is always good to start with the basics. Here you can check your progress and fine tune your approach. 2 Financial Resolutions You Really Need to Make Before the New Year
In a similar vein, but a longer to-do list, this has you checking fees and automatic savings. 9 Smart Money Moves to Make in January
While this may not be a year-end specific thing, you are not getting any younger. So, in the spirit of checklists, here is one for the must do pile. 5 Financial Steps You Should Take Before You Retire
Year-end Review: Do you think you are AOK on retirement savings?
If you have been reading along with each post you likely realize there is still work to be done. If that has not gotten through, or you have not been reading along, try this. My friend Ron Pressman gives a compelling, fact-based analysis of the US retirement situation. Please do have a look. The Retirement Savings Deficit in America
Year-end Review: Inasmuch as it is a week away for most, enjoy some diversionary things.
Who would not want to stay in the most beautiful places in the world? You may as well put some of these in your budget, while you are at it. The Most Beautiful Places to Stay in the World
Of course it did not end well for the old Czar, but boy did they live the high life. This one is really a flip through some unbelievable pictures. Life Aboard the Luxury Super Yacht of Russia’s Last Emperor
Google is full of surprises, and Google Earth and Google Maps are no exception. If you use them, you may be interested in these articles. Google Maps: 14 Hidden Features You Probably Didn’t Know Google Earth now has global Landsat and Sentinal 2 data from 1985 to 2016 and Google Earth Update Shows How Climate Change Has Morphed Our Planet