Category Archives: Economic Analysis

Beware the market correction

“Once we believe in ourselves, we can risk curiosity, wonder, spontaneous delight or any experience that reveals the human spirit.” – e.e. cummings, poet and playwright

Markets and the Economy – it really is worth paying attention:
A really fascinating look at the convergence of events…that you probably don’t want to know! Is a market correction far behind? Stocks crashed the last two times this happened
To a certain degree a major market correction is always inevitable (even if a major bubble has to come first), it’s all about your timing in proclaiming it. However, hard to argue that we’ve had an exceptional run on Wall Street. So, maybe… A Major Downturn is Inevitable: Here are Some Ways to Bet on the Coming Decline
Just in case you thought that was the only negative prognostication about the markets, this one chart is pretty disturbing. Here’s some great news for those who want the stock market to crash
Finally, if you don’t believe those guys, here’s a brand name commentator, Byron Wien from Blackstone, with a different twist and the same result. Byron Wien: The Fed basically put $3 trillion into the stock market

Retirement security – stay diligent…:
It’s hard to resist this title, but read thoroughly because he starts by saying ‘don’t buy an annuity,’ only to advocate for an immediate annuity or guaranteed lifetime income benefit … inside your company retirement plan. 20% More Retirement Income – Another Good Reason Not to Rollover Your 401(k)
Since you are now not going to rollover your 401(k), you will be well served to read this quick primer on how to manage your account. 6 Strategies for 401(k) Success
We cover the passive vs. active debate regularly here, this is another interesting view, probably more accurate than most. I will caution you, though, that while it looks at pure performance, it excludes the fee structure … of course we all know active funds typically cost more and those costs add up over time. Who Wins the ‘Passive vs. Active’ Institutional Debate? Pt. 1: U.S. Large Cap Blend and Who Wins the ‘Passive vs. Active’ Institutional Debate? Pt. 2: U.S. Large Cap Growth
Perhaps not entirely a retirement thing, buyer beware on hospitals, particularly out of network hospitals. These 10 hospitals could pick your pocket clean

Miscellany – a little offset for the doomsday predictions:
This sure seems like a win for safety, especially the bike shot. Volvo Lifepaint
Now keep in mind, they say they are ironic, perhaps not all funny. Number 10, though, funny. 15 Moments in the History of Mankind That are so Ironic, They’re Funny
This proves the old adage ‘it’s good to be king’ or emir, as the case may be. The Middle East’s largest yacht that comes with a super price – in pictures

Your retirement, plan now

It is not who is right, but what is right, that is of importance.– Thomas Huxley, scientist

Retirement security – the more you know…:
It is always inevitable, a downturn, but after this long run…be prepared. This is an interesting analysis of a low cost protection. Portfolio Structure for Hedging Against a Downturn
Of course, high yields are a nice thing to have, too … that is, without undue risk. How to Get High Yield Returns in Retirement
This just came out today, an interesting, albeit academic, view of retirement savings. I still think it is worth the read. Saving for retirement should be Job #1
Always willing to lead you a little further into the weeds, consider reading this (it does mean a free registration) piece on the impact of interest rates on your retirement. Interest rate liability important to retirement conversation

The Economy –a toe-dip into the world of macroeconomics, join me:
I’ve been saying this for a few posts now, and it gets more compelling as we go. Of course there’s always contrary data, and they like to highlight that, but …. Wall Street is on the verge of saying ‘recession’
In very much the same vein, but on a defensive note, here’s Goldman’s take: What Goldman is Telling It’s Clients: Sell in May and Don’t Come Back for a Year

Leadership tips –back to the servant leader topic:
I have touched on this a few times, and really want to like it. Maybe it’s the name that throws me. Still, I pretty much agree. Why You Shouldn’t Be Afraid to be a ‘Servant Leader’
Being a persuasive speaker is a winning skill to have, here’s a quick, helpful guide. 6 Tips for Writing a Persuasive Speech (on any topic)

Travel tips – save money for your retirement, but still have fun:
I’m always happy to find money savers, and this is an interesting tool. Clearlayover Combines Two Round Trips for Significant Savings
Even if you don’t save money on your flight, you want to be comfortable! Here’s my strategy for securing the best seat on every flight

Miscellany – take your mind off things this weekend:
Some fun flashbacks to see David Letterman off the air. David Letterman Retires: A Brief History of the Top 10 List
This is a pretty cool, pretty disturbing application of technology. Public photos mined to create beautiful time-lapses

Understand the global economy

A good leader is a person who takes a little more than his share of the blame and little less than his share of the credit.” – unknown

Understand the global economy to improve your retirement

The Economy –a toe-dip into the world of macroeconomics, join me:
A fascinating look behind the curtain at the latest jobs report: it’s not pretty. Just one excerpt should cause you to read this: “when it comes to full time jobs there are still 1.1 million fewer now than at the pre-crisis peak in Q4 2007.” Wall Street is One Sick Puppy
On a related note, have a look at just how much the Fed tampering with markets has driven the sustained bull market … are you ready for the Fed to stop? The QE Era
If that all were not unnerving enough for you, try this one on for size. Again linking the market performance to QE, he goes one step farther to introduce global GDP growth. “Hedge!”
Keeping in mind the anemic GDP growth noted above, this author highlights the US reliance on inventory build to get even to that level growth. Biggest Inventory Build in History Prevents Total Collapse of the US Economy
Here is a fascinating, somewhat contrary view, which brings yet another variable into the discussion, “shadow banking.” This author argues that shadow banking will force the Fed to continue with QE, and that it provides a deflationary counterbalance. Interesting. The Fed Has Another $3.9 Trillion in QE to Go (at least)

Retirement security – be prepared, be alert, listen:
Never a bad idea to take a quick quiz checking your readiness. Answer These 10 Questions to See if You’re on Track to Retirement
It is always worth heeding the advice of the sage. A Dozen Things Taught by Warren Buffett in his 50th Anniversary Letter that will Benefit Ordinary Investors
Perhaps this belongs in another category, but it highlights a growing retirement concern, longevity risk. It is also why I favor ‘longevity insurance’ or deferred immediate annuities as part of the retirement solution. Calculated Risk: The Projected Improvement in Life Expectancy

Leadership tips –short, insightful lists for your consideration:
I love this one, hits on my favorite key themes. What Makes a Great Leader?: 5 Traits of Successful Leaders
Another one wholly in line with my beliefs. 12 Ways to Become a Charismatic Leader

Travel tips – save money for your retirement, but still have fun:
Use the right tools to get an edge. Finding Cheap Flights 101
More tools and tips to stay ahead. Secrets for cheap airline tickets
Most importantly, don’t be proud….New Terms with the $400 British Airways AARP Discount?